After the Sarawak’s state election, many jumped into conclusion that Najib will have no other choice but to postpone the calling of the 13th General Election. Reason – Najib’s friend in Sarawak performed badly after DAP captured 12 of 15 seats contested, a 80% success rate, not to mention doubling its initial 6 seats, conveniently forgotten that Chief Minister Taib Mahmud made a clean sweep of 35 seats it contested, a 100% success rate. That’s a bunch of horse-shit as Najib should call for the snap election this year, tactically.
Well, I’ve wrote 15 Signs & Reasons Snap Election is Around the Corner and believe the snap election would be called this year after the Sarawak Elections – The Winners, Losers & The Next GE. And I still think Najib should and would call the snap election this year. Of course his mentor, Mahathir Mohamad, somehow got cold feet and he opined prime minister Najib should only call for general elections next year as there is currently too much racial division. Surely Najib doesn’t need to listen to Mahathir because the PM is an adult and not a small kid that need the nanny to baby-sit him all the time.
1) Chinese Vote-Bank
Many justify that Najib will postpone the snap election to next year or beyond simply because the Chinese voters are still stubbornly shying away from ruling government’s National Front (Barisan Nasional). That’s a pretty naive way in looking at the matter. To hell with the Chinese votes – if they had abandoned the BN in the general election 3 years ago and continuosly asking Najib’s administration to fly kite in the past 13 by-elections and the recent Sarawak state election, chances are they won’t return to BN’s fold anymore, at least not with the current master-slave model.
There’s not a single thing that Najib has done (did he do anything in the first place?) that impress and could persuade the Chinese voters to reverse their votes; and there’s not a single thing that the Chinese voters want that Najib can deliver without offending his UMNO’s warlords and racism’s policies. As I’ve said, the Chinese can survive on their own without the government’s assistance and as long as they pay their taxes, they can ask the government to fly kite if votes is what the BN is demanding.
Instead of wasting time sulking, scolding and threatening the Chinese voters being not appreciative, Najib should move on and call for a snap election this year. Really, it doesn’t make a difference to call a snap election either this year or next year if the Chinese votes was the concern. And Najib is aware of this so he will most likely do so this year. The many success stories from opposition DAP in managing Penang gives more reasons to the Chinese voters to avoid BN’s partner MCA and Gerakan for good.
2) Indian Vote-Bank
Interestingly most of the Indian-ethnic who revolted in the name of Makkal Shakti during the Mar-2008 General Election are pretty impress with the 1Malaysia concept. Najib’s administration has done an excellent job in breaking up the once influential Hindraf who pioneered the Makkal Shakti into harmless adorable teddy bears. The propaganda 1Malaysia has work wonderfully well in brainwashing the Indian-ethnic thinking the government was really serious about the slogan.
They’re so stupid it makes the Iban in Sarawak look like Einstein. Isn’t it laughable to think that many were happily bashing the Iban for selling their votes for RM200 not many moons ago during the Sarawak state election but the Indian-ethnic (most of them) in Peninsula is doing the same without being paid? Najib was telling the truth that the Indian-ethnic has return in big way to BN although he lied about the Chinese-ethnic.
Given that BN lost its two-thirds majority primarily due to massive votes-swing from Indian-ethnic, the return of the same votes would almost ensure the return of the two-thirds-majority. Even if it doesn’t, the popular vote would definitely increases. Therefore, Najib should call for a snap election this year, while the 1Malaysia slogan still works. With the much hated Samy Vellu sent into retirement, there’s little reason to hate BN.
3) Malay Vote-Bank
This is perhaps the most complicated problem with simple solution. While Najib can ignore the Chinese voters and have already lock-in the Indian voters, the Malay voters will determine if Najib will eventually fly kite for real. It’s very crucial to ensure Malay’s swung votes to the opposition 3 years ago will swing back to BN in the next 13th general election. And believe me when I say you do not need a rocket scientist to plot some plans to swing the Malay votes especially the fence-sitters back to BN.
In a nutshell, BN just need 1.2% swing to BN to regain its two-thirds majority, an extremely easy task compares to opposition parties who need additional 6% swing while maintaining their swung votes from Mar 2008 general election. The past by-election results show the Malay voters have indeed reverse the trend and are supporting Najib’s administration. However, as a backup plan, Najib needs to ensure the younger Malay voters who are fence-sitters would act as the second layer support.
These young and inexperience voters and to a certain extent the older Malay voters can be brainwashed with dirty tactics such as Anwar Schwarzenegger’s sex tape scandal and the latest Christian conspiracy. Surely out of 100 Malay voters there will be a small number who believe the allegations. Heck, if Najib’s administration can easily tricked and trapped smart street RPK for an interview that clears Najib’s name in relation to Mongolian Altantuya’s murder and at the same time cracked RPK’s credibility, how hard it is to influence the young potatoes (voters)?
However, such dirty tricks have a short lifespan and will expire soon so either you strike while the iron is hot or you have to cook up some other stories. The fact that Najib’s UMNO mouthpiece, Utusan Malaysia, is given full immunity in fanning flames of racial hatred and is in full swing now goes to show that Najib’s snap election is indeed this year. Actually UMNO realizes it can’t use the Chinese as economic bogeyman anymore because unlike in 1969, the Malay ethnic (or rather Malay UMNO) become very rich now.
So UMNO and MCA were rather disappointed the Malay ethnic and Chinese ethnic gave their middle finger when put on the wrestling ring, instead of fighting each other. But flaming the religion is another fresh idea altogether. Still fresh from the Allah controversy, Utusan Malaysia under UMNO’s endorsement tried their luck by making the Christian the new bogeyman. The accusations that opposition DAP and some pastors were plotting to make Christianity the religion of the federation and appoint a Christian prime minister seems like the greatest invention since sliced bread.
As much as the “Christian conspiracy” is laughable because it defies even the law of gravity, the plot was nevertheless serious enough to raise many Malay ethnic eyebrows and swing some of their votes to the BN. Of course as usual the PM Najib would appear calming everyone as if he was the hero who save the day. And the poor and naive Christian groups were put in the dock to explain themselves when they had never questioned the official religion of the country in the first place.
And if you think this saga is over after PM Najib’s meeting (or rather interrogation?) with the Christian groups, you’re dead wrong. UMNO-owned Utusan Malaysia, Mahathir-backed Perkasa, Najib’s cousin and Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein and many more unknown groups would emerge from nowhere and will take their turn in punching the Christians to keep the heat up and to divert attention from UMNO’s problems. What better time to call a snap election this year while the opposition is in havoc?
4) Sarawak State Election Result
As much as the recent concluded Sarawak election results show some setbacks, it also gives Najib the reason to call for a snap election this year. While the opposition especially DAP is still celebrating and chest-thumping with their small victory, the main issue about multi-billionaire Chief Minister Taib Mahmud’s corruption has somehow cool down. Using the latest result as a guideline, Najib’s BN will probably lose, the most, additional 4 to 5 parliamentary seats, which is negligible. The nightmare of a total Sarawak tsunami is now a myth.
The picture is clearer now that the objective of opposition in marching to Putrajaya is a mission impossible, even if the status-quo in Peninsula remains, which is unlikely because the voters do not hate Najib’s administration as much as they did during Abdullah Badawi’s administration. If Najib delays the snap election to next year and beyond, there’s no guarantee the current Sarawak’s political landscape will remain the same. Najib’s administration is said to have spent about RM500 million in the Sarawak state election inclusive of vote-buying.
Now that it’s a known fact the Chinese in Sarawak has a change of heart, BN will most likely spend less in the coming 13th general election. If Najib postpones it, he may need to spend a higher figure if the situation turns for the worst. And Chief Minister Taib Mahmud won’t care about parliamentary election as he’s only interested in his state’s election.
5) Anwar’s Sodomy II
The High Court set May 16 to deliver its decision whether Anwar Ibrahim will be called to enter his defence or acquit him of his sodomy charge. And why do you think the new Deputy IGP (Inspector General of Police) said there’s no hurry to reveal the man in the sex video yet? Won’t it be nice to tell the voters just before an election that not only de-facto opposition leader Anwar sodomised his former personal aide Saiful, he was also caught with his pants down bonking a prostitute like Terminator Schwarzenegger despite a back pain.
Najib will almost certainly call for a snap election this year in order to leverage on above bullets. These cases need conclusion soon and can’t be dragged any further into 2012 and beyond. In reality, these political conspiracy theories has taken its toll on Anwar so much so that he has lost focus in strengthening his own PKR party. It’s true that the opposition should not merely rely on one person. The partnership of PKR-DAP-PAS will most probably crumbles should Anwar put behind bars as it seems only Anwar can glue PAS and DAP together.
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