Simple Way to Explain Subprime Crisis

Have you heard about subprime crisis in U.S? Do you know what is it? Do you know why it happens? This article provides a very simple explanation of subprime crisis especially for those non-financial people or economist.

It was a very hot issue that has been discussed over the last year. I tried to search around the web to get more information about this subprime crisis in U.S. but all those explanations were too difficult for me to understand. So, this article is to simplify the explanation of subprime crisis which appears to be a very complex thing. I did this on my own research based on my understanding. You can verify whether my understanding is correct or not.

What is Subprime Mortgage?

First of all, we need to understand what subprime means. By dictionary, “Subprime” is an adjective relating to or for people with a poor credit rating. Simply says, if you never clear your credit card balance monthly, you have a poor credit rating. A poor credit rating people are disqualified to apply for conventional mortgage or loan application. They’re disqualified because they have higher risks that they are not able to make the loan payment due to their poor credit history. Bank is very clever. They come out a special type of loan to these poor credit rating people. This loan or mortgage is called “Subprime Mortgage” or “Subprime Loan”.

Why Banks Want Subprime Mortgage?

Why banks (subprime lenders) want to lend money to those who have bad credit history? They may not even able to payback the bank. But still, why they want to do that? Yes, you got it. It is all related to money. The banks are also greedy and they want to earn more. The main reason why the banks want to do this is they predict the value of the property will be going up. So they increase the mortgage interest rate (higher than the conventional loan) and they call it a subprime mortgage. They earn more with the higher mortgage interest rate and just in case the borrowers can’t continue the payment, they still can sell the houses with higher value due to the property appreciation.

To further reduce the risks and to get more loans (earn more money by loan interest), the banks repackage all mortgages into an investment product and sell it to financial institutions in all over the world (not just in U.S). This is now not only between banks and borrowers get involved in this subprime mortgage but also all the financial institutions around the world. You may ask why they want to invest in this high risk product (pool of subprime mortgage)? One reason, they believe that the property value will go up.


What happen to subprime borrowers?

They buy the house only for one reason which is expecting value of the houses to go up and they earn from the property appreciation. They can rent out their house with higher value or they can sell the house with higher value. All the debts they had previously can be easily paid off. Because house prices had increased so rapidly in the past few years, paying back the loan payment is not a problem at all. The borrowers also refinance their loan at more favourable terms due to they no longer have a bad credit rating history.

Can you see that? Everybody wins! Borrowers, banks and financial institutions are eating the same cheese happily and the cheese is “property appreciation”. Yummy, yummy!


When and Why Crisis Happens?

I think you should be able to guess it by now when the crisis will happen. Everybody enjoys the same cheese, if the cheese is gone, what happen? Crisis happens. It is that simple. When the house or property values drops, the cheese is gone. Everybody wins now becomes everybody loses!

When demand is more than supply (everyone wants to buy house), the property values went up like crazy. Until one day, when it becomes much more expensive to borrow, less people could afford to buy a house. As there were not as many buyers, the real estate market begin to cool down and house prices begin to fall.

When the house prices begin to fall, the subprime borrowers are going to suffer. Not only they’re not able to pay their existing debt, they are stuck having to pay a much larger mortgage payment. This causes many of these borrowers to not be able to make their house payment.

So for the financial institutions, they are going to lose their money that they invested because the borrower are not able to pay the loan payment. On the other hand, banks have a very big problem also because they rely on this these financial institutions to invest in the pool of mortgages investment product. Financial institutions no longer wants to invest and do not trust the bank anymore. If no wants want to buy them, where the banks get the money to offer the loans?

They bank also suffer from the lost for those borrowers who failed to make payment. As a result, the banks increase the mortgage interest rate to cover loses and hopes that borrowers (who afford to pay) can pay more. Sadly, the effect is opposite and this even makes the conditions worst. More and more borrowers failed to pay their monthly loan payment due to the interest rate increases. Crisis happens! Everyone suffers!

Conclusion

Subprime crisis happens because everyone predicts the property value will appreciate over time. The economy now is no longer as simple as in 30 years ago where we can predict the future with certain of accuracy. Future is getting harder and harder to be predicted for the coming years. What it next? It is really unknown.

Therefore the impact of this crisis is still has a lot of uncertainty. Will it causes another economy recession in U.S since 2000? Will this affect other countries? This is another huge topic to be discussed. Anyway, I hope this post is making sense and give you a little bit general idea on this subprime mortgage crisis in U.S.

How Much Fuel Hike Will It Be – 5 sen, 20 sen, 40 sen or None?

Next month will be the Judgement Day for both consumers and the Malaysian government. The petrol price hike is almost certain. The only question is by how much will the government increase RON95 after its brother RON97 was increased by RM0.20 a liter early this month. Another interesting event is whether the government would lower the price of RON97 considering the global crude oil has consolidate to below $100 per barrel.

The government has given multiple warnings that the RON95 will increase by painting how painful the government is surviving by subsidizing the fuel. Gosh, some Malaysian ministers almost cry as if this country is the only one subsidizing fuel prices. While the government was having easy time in deciding the 20 sen increase on RON97, the same cannot be said about RON95 because an estimated 80% consumers are using this type of fuel, which accounted for 30% of the total fuel subsidy.

If history were to repeat itself, the total fuel subsidy in 2008 was about $17.5 billion and now Najib’s administration is set to carry the burden of about $18 billion, if current fuel price remains. This is more than the initial budget of RM10 billion subsidy based on the assumption the global crude oil will not go above $90 a barrel. Guess God has his funny way of playing jokes on the current government.

Fortunately PM Najib’s predecessor, Abdullah Badawi, has shown a classic example on how to lose a general election, well, almost. Badawi hiked the fuel price by a whopping 40.62% from RM1.92 a liter to RM2.70 a liter back in 2008, and the rest is history. However one has to remember that while Badawi did the unthinkable, consumers were reimbursed in cash amounted to RM625 rebate for cars below 2,000 cc and RM125 for motorcyclist.

Almost instantly the food prices and inflation spiked thereafter. Last month, the government claimed the actual price of RON95 was RM2.77 a liter against the current pump price of RM1.90 a liter. To increase from RM1.90 a liter to RM2.77 a liter or about 45% increase will push Najib on top of “Bravest Souls” chart. Of course Najib won’t perform such a heroic act, not that he dares in the first place.

How does the government determine or calculate petrol prices? It is using something called APM (automated pricing mechanism) formula of which the core is MOPS (Mean of Platts Singapore) – referring to the mean price of oil traded through Singapore as per the data from Platts, a provider of energy and metals information. Add other variables such as oil company margin, station dealer profit, sales tax, operation cost and alpha; and you’ll get the fuel price.

In short, it was said that an increase of $10 a barrel would result in a 19 sen a liter price hike of RON95. The government phased out RON92 and introduced RON95 on Sept 2009 when the crude oil was at $70 a barrel. The price of RON97 was then increased from RM1.80 to RM2.05. So using the same arithmetic and Sept 2009 fuel price as benchmark, the price of RON97 should be at about RM2.62 (19 sen x 3) when the crude oil hit $100 ($10 x 3) a barrel.Will the government reduce RON97 to RM2.65 or RM2.60 a liter next month since the crude oil is below $100 a barrel?

We know the price of RON95 will go up next month but we won’t know the quantum. Heck, even the government is scratching their heads now in determining the amount to be hiked. AmResearch predicted RON95 and diesel would go up as much as 20 sen next month, a fair prediction I would say. If the increase is minimal of between 5 sen to 10 sen a liter (of which the government can save RM650 million to RM1.3 billion) then you can put all your money that Najib is going to call a snap election next month (*grin*). At RM2.10 (20 sen increase) a liter, people would grumble but not to the extent of taking it to the street.

Still, this provides sufficient ammunitions to the opposition in the coming snap election. One has to remember that ever since the petrol price was increased from RM1.92 to RM2.70 in 2008, the prices of food, transportation, raw materials and whatnot escalated to new height and never came downthereafter, even though the petrol price had been reduced subsequently to the lowest of RM1.80 on Dec 2008. If the inflation remains the same even after a 20 sen hike on RON95, then Lady Gaga is still a virgin.

Government’s argument that it can’t continue to subsidise the fuel price has its logic and makes perfect sense. But it doesn’t explain why the government was silent on the gigantic subsidy of a whopping RM19 billion currently enjoyed by IPPs (Independent Power Producers), most of them cronies who contribute to the government’s war-chest. Spin as you like but a subsidy is still a subsidy and you can’t call it another animal because Petronas was obviously selling gas way below market price to the IPPs.

And what would stop the government from hiking fuel price RON95 at all? The only obvious answer is the snap election will definitely be this year and it will be so near you can smell it. If there’s no price hike at all, including electricity, water, gas and so on, then you’re possibility looking at a snap election before the 2012 Budget. The fact that Goldman Sachs predicts that the crude oil would escalate to $140 a barrel from earlier projected of $120 a barrel for the year 2012 is a strong concern enough to trigger Najib’s camp into panic mode.

The game is getting riskier as Najib administration is juggling between refilling its empty coffer from subsidies (and corruptions) without hiking fuel price (as the crude price fluctuates every day) and determining the best date to call a snap election. It seems his lucky date of 11-11-2011 is so near yet so far. Isn’t it fun looking at how artificial pricing in the name of subsidy and corruption are slowly eating into a corrupt government itself?

Update: Government has decided to maintain the prices of RON95 petrol, diesel and gas. Snap Election before October 2012 Budget?

Sarawak Election 2011 – 10 Reasons Why BN  Still Win

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has been sweating a lot lately, not because of his hectic schedule due to Sarawak state election but because the intelligence reports could not confirm Sarawak, being ruling government’s “fixed deposit”, would maintain its two-thirds majority. Hence the change of his official schedule to spend six-day until the eve of polling day, touring Sarawak, when the campaigning was already on its fifth day.

Najib used to play minor role in numerous by-elections and normally would dedicate the active role in campaigning to his deputy. Najib has been trumpeting that Sarawak state was BN’s (Barisan Nasional) “fixed deposit” so his sudden active role raised thousands of eye-brows. Now, the Sarawak state election becomes his personal battlefield. Heck, his deputy PM Muhyiddin would be the happiest person if the opposition wins big because then he would have the excuse to boot PM Najib into early retirement, the same way Najib booted his predecessor, former PM Abdullah Badawi.



One wonders the deadly silence on former premier Mahathir Mohamad’s part during the current campaign period. Either Mahathir knows Sarawak will retain its two-third majority hence sending the opposition packing with tails between their legs, or the old man is busy preparing for deputy PM Muhyiddin to be installed as the new prime minister with his own son, Deputy International Trade and Industry Minister Mukhriz Mahathir, as the new deputy Prime Minister.

If the Mar 2008 general election campaign is anything to goes by, the huge crowds commanded by opposition namely Pakatan Rakyat especially in Kuching, Sibu and Miri during their rallies were signal that Najib’s BN is indeed in trouble. But was Najib over-reacted by going down the field to campaign himself for the rest of the 6-day campaigning period? Was the opposition over-confident that the same tsunami that hit Peninsular would bring the same catastrophe to Najib’s government?

 

Internet is once again flushed with optimism that the opposition would deny the “fixed deposit” state of its two-thirds majority. Some even went the extra miles predicting opposition would wrest the Sarawak state, so much for the wet dream. In reality, opposition can never capture Sarawak state, at least not during this state election simply because Sarawak is a different animal from Penang, Selangor, Kedah or Kelantan. Here are the reasons:


1)     The Malay-Melanau Minority Factor

• Despite Taib Mahmud’s corrupt practice, the Malay-Melanau community is particularly proud that one of their own is the Chief Minister although Malay-Melanau forms only 27% of Sarawak’s 2.4 million population.

• Generally the Malay-Melanau community is doing better than other natives so there’s no reason to rock the boat that is feeding them and they don’t really care if Taib Mahmud was serious about stepping down after the state election.
• Out of 71 seats to be contested, there’re 26 which are Malay-Melanau dominated so these seats are as good as in the BN’s pocket. Just flash the poster depicting Bian Baru, a non Malay-Melanau, as the new Chief Minister should the opposition wins was sufficient to scare the hell out of the Malay-Melanau community.

 2)     Rural Seats with Poor Infrastructures Overwhelm Urban Seats

• OK, the opposition especially DAP is set to win big in Chinese-majority urban seats hence sending SUPP packing, the same way DAP sent Gerakan in Penang to semi-retirement. DAP which is contesting 15 urban seats this time is sure to add number to its current 6 seats but can it make a clean sweep?  

• It would be sweet victory if DAP can win all 15 seats but the party was prudent in aiming for 12-seats.
• However in rural areas, opposition is almost powerless what more with the poor infrastructure in reaching the voters. Furthermore these rural voters are so decentralize that it’s an uphill task to cover all of them given the short 10-day campaign period.

 3)     Rural Sarawakian will Take the Money and Still Vote for BN

• Unlike their lucky buddy DAP, PKR which is contesting 49 seats are struggling in the rural constituencies. Najib’s BN is smiling their policy in keeping rural population as poor as possible is bearing fruits.

• While the opposition calls on voters to “take BN’s money but vote for opposition” works wonderfully well in Peninsular, the same doesn’t work with native culture such as the Iban where tradition taught them to be grateful and appreciate the hand that feed (the money) them.
• If that’s not enough throw in some parties and crates of beers and your votes are secured.

 4)     BN has the Most Lethal Weapon – Money

• If the opposition still cries unfairness because the BN throws (tax-payers) money for votes, then they’re either stupid or was born yesterday. Money politics has been part of the culture in Malaysia so much so special branch agents were reportedly act as an agent for BN to buy over opposition candidates during this election.

• BN will send its agent to visit longhouse, door by door, to distribute cash ranging from RM50 to RM300 – a huge amount considering poor urban families typically earn between RM100 to RM500 a month.
• Not only rural but urban areas such as Kuching voters are reportedly offered between RM100 and RM200 each for their votes. Surely there would be takers who will vote for BN now.

5)     The Fear and Intimidation Factor

• Unlike Peninsular, Sarawak is a state where its rural community is cleverly controlled by community leaders. This appointed community leaders from Malay, Chinese and Iban would do the biddings of BN since they draw their allowance of RM800 from the Barisan Nasional.

• Should there be support for opposition, the community leaders will be sacked while the government assistance such as provision of fertiliser, seedling and herbicide be terminated.

 6)     Rural and even Urban Sarawakians Still Love (CheapSkate) “Goodies”

• Even if the opposition candidates are lucky to pass the hindrance of unusual police restrictions and granted visit by the headmen (“tuai”), the villagers would openly ask for money.

• Heck, who can blame the rural folks when the urban voters were crazily scramble for “Tupperware” (*grin*) during an indoor rally that left many jounalists and policement gasping in disbelief? Sure, these people may not vote for BN but if they would risk their life madly for a Tupperware, chances are high they can be bought over with hard-cash, no?

 7)     Three or Multiple Ways Battles

• There’s a record 213 candidates fighting for the 71 state seats: 27 one-to-one fights, 23 three-way battles, 17 four-cornered fights, 2 five-cornered battles and 2 six-cornered fights. SNAP, dubbed the Trojan Horse, is contesting 27 seats, 25 of which are 3-way battles in Dayak-majority seats with BN and PKR.

• Assuming DAP and PKR were correct to be confident in delivering 12 seats and 15 seats respectively (on the one-to-one battles?), the kingmaker is obviously SNAP, provided this so-called Trojan Horse is genuine in its fight to get rid of the corrupt Taib Mahmud. Of course if SNAP is indeed the mole, then it won’t matter, would it?
• The rest of the three and multiple corner fights would split the opposition votes so it would be bonus if opposition Pakatan Rakyat can steals some seats.  

 8)     Special “Help” from Election Commission

• Many can still remember how Election Commission was allegedly dumped ballot boxes into the river during Batang-Ai by-election.

• With the current tension and fever, there’s no reason why Election Commission will not do the same, not that the opposition can do anything and will know about it because there’s no observer allowed during the helicopter rides.

 9)     Potential Frogs Within Opposition Parties

• Get real, there’re very few who can resists the temptation of money, millions or even tens of millions of dollars for any opposition candidates who won their seats to jump ship to BN.

• As can be seen in Peninsular, principle and so-called belief in struggle will take a back-seat once bags of money are presented on the table.

 10)     Phantom Voters

• Well, what can I say on this classic factor? As usual, if phantom voters could somehow ended inside ballot boxes in Peninsular, how difficult it is to perform this SOP (standard operating procedure) during the journey to the counting center at Sarawak?

• For reasons only known to Election Commission, they somehow knew the turnout would be above 80%.

There’re many more other factors including the difficulties in getting young voters who are working in Peninsular to fly back to cast their votes. The writing is on the wall. While Taib Mahmud would experience the worst election result in this 30-year rule, the BN will continue to rule the state. The worst case scenario – BN to lose two-thirds majority in the state but the opposition can never capture the state this round simply because Sarawak is a different animal from Penang, Selangor, Kedah or Kelantan.

But nothing is absolute in politics. Maybe, just maybe the controversial Bible issue could mobilise the native Iban and swing the votes to opposition’s advantage. Still, bread and butter are more important than religious matter so it might not trigger the much needed fire if enough money are poured into the villages. To the superstitious lots, the helicopter that crashed after deputy PM Muhyiddin disembarked could well be constructed as a bad omen to the corrupt government Barisan Nasional.

5 Reasons Why President Obama Made The Risky Bet

In stock market you either bet to long or short your desire stocks. Of course there’re more choices in options trading such as playing the spread game of which you get to keep the premium if the options you bought expire out of value. It was precisely the same dilemma that hit President Barack Obama before he authorize the strike by U.S. Navy SEAL Team Six that eventually killed Osama bin Laden. In fact, it took President Obama 16 hours of thinking to approve the mission despite all the positive indicators that someone of very high value was residing in the million dollar mansion.

The nightmare of “Black Hawk Down”, the disastrous 1993 battle in Somalia in which two American helicopters were shot down and some of their crew killed in action, constantly being mentioned during meetings before the final decision to strike the “mansion” outside of Abbottabad, without the knowledge of the government of Pakistan. The stake was very high but the potential returns could be very rewarding. Just like investing stocks, options or other financial instruments, you either make a great profit or suffer a huge loss.



In the case of President Obama, it could cost him his presidency should the “Black Hawk Down” history was to repeat itself. Already many knifes were at his throat ready to send him out of the Oval Office. His ratings in managing the economy couple with escalating oil prices and stubborn unemployment were not in his favour. He had to decide fast and the fact that his administration officials were split over whether to launch the operation, wait and continue monitoring or go for less risky bombing assault didn’t help President Obama at all.

 

Finally he made the bet and four top aides were summoned to the White House Diplomatic Room where he gave the greenlight to strike. The operation was perhaps the most risky and critical in Obama’s entire life that he was practically “stone faced” as seen in a photo where his team was updated realtime on the mission in the White House. Tours of the White House was even cancelled on Sunday in order to prevent suspicious that some sort of crisis was going on with all the high-level security officials holed up in the Situation Room.

Four helicopters (two main assault copters with another two as backup in case of trouble) with 79 American commandos flew in at low altitude and entered Pakistani airspace using sophisticated technology intended to evade that country’s radar systems. Some speculate that the Americans had either jammed the Pakistani air defence system or the Pakistan government / military knew of the operation all along because of the one hour journey from Bagram and returned after the 40-minute mission. If indeed Pakistan government didn’t know about the operation until it was over, then their air defence system sucks big time.



The code name for Osama bin Laden was “Geronimo” and only after everyone in the Situation Room received “Geronimo EKIA” (Enemy Killed In Action) was the mission accomplished. President Obama’s bet works and the death handed Obama a sweet major national security victory, just as he begins campaigning for re-election in 2012. So, why did President Obama decided to go ahead with the most risky option in this operation? What was he betting against? What benefits would he get should he bet the right horse?

1) Repair his poor economic management

President Obama won his presidency because his “Political Change” worked wonderfully at a time when the Americans were sick and tired of former President Bush’s disastrous economic policy. But two years into his presidency Americans are increasingly rejecting President Obama’s big government solutions to America’s economic problems.

 

The fears over the current state of the US economy, concern over high levels of unemployment, the unstable housing market, rising gasoline prices and most importantly the towering budget deficit are flushing Obama’s approval ratings down the toilet. He hoped to bring down oil prices a few notches with decline in geopolitical risk. And now with the latest success, dealing with other issues that has direct influence over oil prices such as the Libyan crisis could be much easier.

2) Improve confidence in his leadership as the Commander-in-Chief  

Obama’s Leadership Rating drops to a staggering 37% by Feb 2011, the lowest level since he took office in January 2009 and obviously a disaster for his re-election campaign. Compared to former President Bush, Obama has not proven a bit on his leadership militarily.

 

Sept 11, 2001 attacks on American soil by Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda were the defining moment of Bush’s presidency and the sudden feelings of patriotism among Americans skyrocket thereafter helped Bush stay in office. Using the same argument, Obama thought if he succeeded in capturing or killing Osama in the operation, it would rejuvenate his presidency chances.

3) Fulfilling his 2009 Presidential Campaign Pledge

During the 2008 presidential campaign, Obama promised to scale back the estimated 156,000 U.S. troops from Iraq and Kuwait while boosting 10,000 more to reinforce the U.S. troops in Afghanistan. He also pledged to continue hunting down bin Laden. At that point of time, it was presumed that the al-Qaeda operation generally and Osama specifically were concentrated along the Afghanistan and Pakistan borders.

 

If indeed the high-value suspect in the mansion targeted in the operation is Osama bin Laden, then Obama would have fulfill his pledge, not to mention a stronger justification in bringing back more troops back home.

4) Silencing his critics especially the Republicans

Traditionally, Repulicans have a reputation in U.S. politics for being stronger than Democrats on national security issues. And history shows that the Americans would rally behind their president during a war, at least during the initial stage. It sure feels good to be treated as a hero, no matter big war or small battle.



A successful operation taking place under his authorization and watch would give Obama and his party the trophy that his predecessor George W. Bush failed to secure. And Osama bin Laden is no ordinary trophy obviously.

5) Strengthening American greatness to rally supporters

In a speech to the United Nations, President Obama once stated that “no one nation can or should try to dominate another nation. No world order that elevates one nation or group of people over another will succeed. No balance of power among nations will hold.” While his objective was to adopt a softer instead of confrontational approach with other countries, it doesn’t goes well with most of the Americans.

 

The simple logic was that a U.S. president who does not accept America’s greatness in history can never lead the world’s only superpower with force. President Obama was accused of out of touch with the American people and he has undermine the United States as a global power, something that most Americans cherishes. Obama administration was easily blamed for the failure in containing Iran’s nuclear programme and the latest weakness in dragging its feat in solving Libyan crisis.

Therefore, by successfully taking out Osama bin Laden’s decade-old long threat, other countries who had the perception that U.S. was a weak country under an incompetent president would now need to reassess the situation once again. It would be extremely foolish to poke the country that would not think twice about sending its military might into your territory, without you even notice it. Hence the immediate country that needs a lot of explaining to do now is none other than Pakistan.

 

Although Pakistan succeeded in getting China’s support, the United States vowed to “get to the bottom” of the matter, never mind that Pakistan cries it didn’t know or helped Osama bin Laden in any way despite the fact that Osama lived comfortably in a fortified compound in the Pakistan military garrison town of Abbottabad. It remains to be seen if the U.S. Congress would withdraw the US$20 billion direct aid for Pakistan to help fight militancy since al-Qaeda’s Twin Towers attacks.

Those who think this is another bluff from Obama administration and Osama bin Laden is still alive are plain idiots. The fact that it came from the highest office of the United States government was sufficient to prove the death of Osama is for real. On the contrary, it would be plain stupid on Obama administration to fake the death simply because Osama bin Laden can easily broadcast video of him holding today’s New York Times to prove he’s still alive. Maybe the release of Osama’s gruesome photograph, which is now under consideration, would convince the doubters.

Tips From Obama Station – How Najib Can Hike Fuel Price & Get Away With It

During such time of escalating fuel price, not only consumers are feeling the pinch, gas stations are competing with each other as well to attract customers. In U.S. where the fuel prices does not enjoy subsidy and fluctuates on daily basis, one has to be creative to lock-in customers. A gas station on Columbia’s North Main Street apparently has come out with a brilliant idea. – renamed and redecorated the station after President Obama.

Sam Alhanik, who owned the station barely two months ago got the idea from his friend who created an Obama Gas Station in Michigan. Alhanik, born in Yemen, is a strong supporter of America’s president – Barack Obama. He said he like President Obama because he’s the first president of black people and his business has turn for the better, ever since the changing of name. Still, competition is stiff and the moment the gas station across the street lower its price, Alhanik immediately lowers it almost instantly.

 

The marketing plan of renaming the station after the president seems to work very well judging by the number of customers flocking to Alhanik’s station as some of them admit the reason why they chose the station was because of the branding. It make them feel like they’re supporting the president by refilling the gas at the station. Alhanik has actually spent $4,000 to change the name and the look. Now, if only President Obama can claim royalties from using his name to boost business.

Maybe the same marketing can be applied elsewhere such as in Malaysia. Recently Malaysian prime minister urges the people should forego the fuel subsidies because it was like opium. Interestingly it was the same government who has been feeding the people opium over the past decades. If the people who are enjoying fuel subsidy now is like drug addicts who have been taking the opium then the government is the big time drug dealer supplying the opium.

While it was easy to blame the people for depending too much on the “opium” oil subsidy, PM Najib conveniently forgets that corruption, of which he did literally nothing to stop it, is actually the real opium. Now, the artificial method of making consumer products look cheap by way of fuel subsidy is haunting the same government, so much so that Najib administration is having sleepless nights figuring whether to hike the fuel prices or not.



Since Najib has been screaming for months that the people believe and embrace his 1Malaysia slogan, maybe he can rename and redecorate petrol stations after his leadership and 1Malaysia. If the people really support him, maybe they could swallow the bitter pill of higher fuel price and happily pump their petrol when they notice the new look (*grin*). What a better way to raise fuel prices and get away with it than this excellent idea?

Sarawak Elections – The Winners, Losers & The Next GE

Sarawak state elections 2011 has come to an end and as expected PM Najib’s ruling National Front (BN, Barisan Nasional) retained control on the state, which accounts for a fifth of its parliamentary seats. I hate to say this again but (yawn) – didn’t I tell you so? Not that I’ve the crystal ball but the writing was all over the wall and I’ve wrote 10 reasons why BN would still win the elections. Do I’ve to repeat again why Sarawak is a different animal from any states from Peninsula?

Now, the opposition Pakatan Rakyat knows why it shouldn’t get too optimistic about capturing the state, the same reason why PM Najib shouldn’t panicked to the extent of abandoning his cabinet meeting and camped 6 days in Sarawak. Taib Mahmud is no ordinary old senile man but a very smart old fox. He knows the politics game in Sarawak very well otherwise he won’t be able to deliver the fixed-deposit to Peninsula for the last 30-years, would he?



If the once most powerful UMNO president of all time, Mahathir Mohamad wouldn’t dare to ask (point-blank) the Peh Moh (white hair) Chief Minister Taib Mahmud to quit, who was Najib or anyone else to ask him to do so? As Taib Mahmud mentioned, when he started ruling the Sarawak state, many politicians who called him to quit were either not born yet or still wearing diapers (*grin*). Voters, especially from the rural areas were and still are under his control as if they are Taib’s slaves. And going by how his party, PBB, won all the 35 seats contested, it seems these rural voters are still happily being Taib’s slaves.

There’re reports that BN has spent RM500 million during this elections for projects promises and vote-buying ranging from RM20 bucks for each illiterate and poor rural voter to RM300 each in Dudong, RM1,000 each in Meradong and RM7,000 each in Ba’kelalan. I’ve tweeted that my Sibu’s friend in Bawang Assan was promised RM100 for registration and another RM500 after casting his vote for BN. So, the opposition was fighting a losing battle against the mountains of money used by BN in vote buying. Only a fool would think the opposition can capture Sarawak state.

Let’s see who are the winners and losers after the Sarawak elections results:

1)         Chief Minister Taib Mahmud (Winner)

Curse as you like but the undisputed heavyweight champion is none other than the much hated Chief Minister Taib Mahmud himself. The old fox was so smart that he could smell a possible internal coup miles away so much so that he didn’t waste much time but to swear in as the Chief Minister, barely an hour after it was confirmed that his team has won the elections with simple majority.

Rumor mill was churning that Putrajaya was thinking of endorsing someone else as the new Chief Minister, hence forcing him into retirement. Heck, now that he was sworn in as the Chief Minister and his party PBB has made a clean sweep of the 35 seats being contested (that’s 100% success rate, dude), nobody including PM Najib can ask him to quit. To entertain Najib, he said he would quit in another two or three years. But anything can happen by then and considering Najib needs to call a nationwide election soon, the old fox is as good as the “Untouchable Godfather”.



That was why I said Najib shouldn’t panicked and camped in Sarawak helping the old fox. Taib’s PBB party itself alone can deliver 35 seats (of course you may say I’m boastful now that the result is out but didn’t I wrote his party controls the majority voters within his constituencies well so that money dishing will always work to his advantage?). In case all his buddies lost, which is very unlikely, he can always bribe some of the frogs to jump over and voila, Taib will form the government with simple majority nevertheless.

With Najib’s intervention, it actually did Taib great favours because the old fox would not have to do any hard work but reap all the profits, not to mention more time to spend with his lovely wife. Heck, maybe the intelligence report Najib had gotten that Sarawak was in deep trouble was deliberately planted by Taib himself. Taib knew Najib couldn’t afford to lose two-thirds majority. If BN lost its two-thirds majority, deputy

PM Muhyiddin would be at Najib’s throat. Najib is now at the mercy of Taib.
In the event the federal government tries to unseat him now by force, Taib would ensure Najib will not be paid a penny from his fixed-deposit. Even without the Chief Minister position, Taib would want nothing less than Minister Mentor post, the equivalent to Singapore’s Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew. Sarawak’s Chief Minister position would be reduced to just another puppet controlled by Taib Mahmud. And who said Taib Mahmud himself cannot jump ship to join Pakatan if Najib tries to squeeze the old man’s balls?


Taib Mahmud’s own 35 seats make him the real kingmaker for those who like to walks the corridors of power. If he can squeeze Mahathir’s balls since 30 years ago till the former premier’s departure, he definitely can squeeze PM Najib Razak though its different balls altogether and if he is being pushed to the wall, he can always extend the invitation to Anwar Ibrahim and the desperate Anwar would not mind his balls to be squeezed either as long as he can become the Prime Minister of Malaysia.

2)         Opposition DAP (Winner)

DAP has performed extremely well, capturing 12 of 15 seats contested – that’s 80% success rate, not to mention doubling its 6 seats in the 2006 state elections. Despite getting two-thirds majority, BN’s popular votes have actually plunged from 62.93% to 55.24% and most of the votes lost were in the urban area of which DAP won with handsome majorities.

Actually, urban areas should have voted opposition parties such as DAP ages ago. The logic is pretty simple – do you think the government would leave cities or states such as Kuala Lumpur, Penang, Selangor, Johore, Kuching, Kota Kinabalu, Sibu etc without any development even if these cities were to fall into opposition’s helm? By holding back any development in urban areas would mean no projects hence no kick-backs.



On the contrary, by voting the opposition in the urban areas, more projects and development would be proposed and implemented simply because the federal government would need to compete and show to the voters that BN can bring developments. Of course DAP has to thank itself for making Penang a successful case study to prove that opposition can govern a state – better than BN.

Pro-government media Utusan Malaysia was actually right in advicing Najib’s BN to ignore the Chinese community for not supporting the ruling coalition during the just concluded Sarawak state elections. The fact is the Chinese community which forms the majority in the urban areas decided to swing their support to the opposition DAP because they were sick and tired of Chief Minister Taib Mahmud. They know the consequences by doing so but actually it doesn’t make any difference because the Chinese community can survives on their own even without the government’s assistance.

If there’s one major reason why the government didn’t dump the Chinese into the sea and ask them to swim back to China, it’s because the Chinese contribute more than 90% of the country’s taxes. This was what Mahathir said not many moons ago. The truth is even if 80% of Chinese votes go to opposition, BN can still form the federal government. So let’s see if Najib would act according to Utusan’s advice, shall we *grin*?

3)         Opposition PKR (Winner as well as Loser)

Depending from which angle you look at it, opposition de-factor leader Anwar Ibrahim’s PKR party can be both winner as well as loser. In terms of number of seats, PKR is clearly the winner capturing 3 seats from 1 seat back in 2006 – 200% improvement. But if you were to calculate from the success rate, PKR only secures 3 seats from the 49 seats it contested – a mere 6% success rate. You may laugh and argue that even

SUPP which got slaughtered by DAP fare better than PKR with 32% success rate.
Clearly the opposition’s strategy in promoting issues such as corruption, religion freedom, native customary rights doesn’t work very well with interior areas. Sure, generally the opposition Pakatan Rakyat managed to reduce BN’s majority in certain native-majority rural constituencies but obviously it was not enough to trigger a tsunami. Furthermore only those native voters who live in areas closer to towns which enjoy better infrastructures and access of information have swing to opposition.

Being in the government once himself, Anwar should know better than anyone else that native voters in the interior rural areas are stubborn nuts to crack. You can’t swing their votes by talking about corruption when their mentality were already polluted with corruption for the last 30 years. They are addicted to corruption and elections is the best venue for them to make some fast bucks. Wonder why Taib didn’t have sleepless nights during elections? His winning formula – distribute money at last-minute and the usual promise of development. It works like charm.

Although Anwar’s PKR shouldn’t be too boastful of capturing double-digit seats, it has done well in creating chaos within BN’s machinery. Maybe the result would be different if it adopt a prudent approach. To deny BN of its two-thirds majority is already difficult, let alone to capture the state. PKR should start spending more time on the ground from now onwards educating the native not to blindly vote for the corrupt BN. It’s never too late to teach the native people how to fish on their own, instead of fishing (like BN) for them.

4)         Rural native voters (Loser)

In short, they gained couple of hundred dollars but lost their chance for a better future, at least for the next four to five years until the next elections. They would still live without basic necessities such as treated water, electricity, medical services, roads etc. And before you call them stupid and deserve to be robbed of their lands, let’s respect their choice of option. Nobody can help them if they do not wish to help themselves so if they prefer couple of dollars of short-term happiness instead of long-term solution, let’s be it.

Furthermore weren’t more developed states and well-informed voters in Peninsula equally naive and stupid to vote for BN before the Mar 2008 Tsunami? Using this as the yardstick, it seems it would take many more Sarawak state elections to wake them up. Maybe majority of them enjoy being robbed of their lands.

5)         Urban Area (Winner)

As mentioned on item (2) above, the urban voters should have make the first step in voting the opposition to create two-party system. Two-party system will not only act as check and balance with louder voice but also to keep corruption at bay instead of blatant day-light robbery. Due to obvious reason, the government would not black-out urban areas from development simply because projects still need to be carried out to attract investors (to enable corruption).



Sure, Taib Mahmud would trumpet about losing Chinese representatives and the community being sidelined. But that was pure gimmick to scare and intimidate voters into submission. Unless Taib ordered armies of bull-dozers to bulldoze towns in Kuching, Sibu, Miri and all the towns won by opposition, these towns would still be business as usual. Even if Taib wouldn’t care, the federal government would be anxious to win back the hearts of the urban voters so expect better “treatment” from Najib administration.

6)         SUPP (Loser)

The biggest loser is definitely SUPP whereby its president George Chan was booted out by DAP unknown Ling Sie Kiong by 1,590 votes in Piasau. Just like its sister parties Gerakan, MCA and MIC from Peninsula which lost heavily in the Mar 2008 general election, George blamed Barisan Nasional for reacted “too little too late” to correct “unjust and unfair policies”. It’s quite funny and hilarious how these leaders share the same script when they lost their piece of share in the musical chair game.



However as a consolation prize, SUPP deputy secretary-general Wong Soon Koh who scrapped through PKR with razor-thin majority of 58 votes is set to be appointed as deputy Chief Minister. Wong Soon Koh should thank his lucky star because I bet he wouldn’t thought that he could replace his boss, George Chan *grin*.

And unlike Gerakan which was completely wiped out in Peninsula, SUPP can still claim that it actually did better than Gerakan’s Koh Tsu Koon. And Koh Tsu Koon has the cheek to advice BN what to do in Sarawak after the latest election. Anyway, George Chan should consider a permanent retirement from politics after this embarrassing defeat. Of course he still can pay some visits to Taib Mahmud asking for projects considering his daughter was married to Taib’s son.

7)         SNAP (Loser)

If it was true that SNAP was Trojan Horse and was set to jump ship if it wins big, BN’s gamble obviously didn’t pay off. SNAP did so bad that all its 26 candidates except Toh Heng San who contested the Katibas seat lost their RM5,000 deposit in the Sarawak polls. SNAP is as good as toast and has lost its shine which it enjoyed once upon a time after it lost it’s only 1 seat which was won in 2006.

8)         Woman (Winner)

Out of 16 women who entered the contest, 7 will make their way to the Sarawak state legislative assembly. Four are incumbents from BN – Fatimah Abdullah, Sharifah Hasidah Sayeed Aman Ghazali, Simoi Peri and Rosey Yunus who retained their seats. Opposition DAP contributes to the tally when 3 of the four women fielded won their seats. The three are Violet Yong in Pending, Ting Tze Fui in Meradong and Christina Chiew in Batu Kawah.

9)         Barisan Nasional (Loser)

How can BN be a loser when it not only win the state election but also secured the two-thirds majority? The answer is simple. Not only its popular votes have tumbled from 62.93% to 55.24%, it also lost additional 8 seats (6 to DAP and 2 to PKR) mainly the urban areas to opposition Pakatan Rakyat. To add salt to injury, prime minister Najib Razak has to cancel his cabinet meeting to rescue the state from further damages, at least that was the intelligence report received by the premier.



If the amount of RM500 million was spent by BN machinery during this state election is true, then the opposition has indeed give BN a good run for its money. Many may also argue that Najib is the winner who save the day but considering his focus in urban areas and yet the losses of 8 seats, it can be considered a slap to his face because the urban voters wouldn’t care of his promises and threat that the Chinese would not be well represented.



Performance wise, BN plunged 11.3% in terms of number of seats secured compared to 2006 – from 62 seats in 2006 to 55 seats now. On the other hand, opposition’s performance jumped 87.5% from 8 seats in 2006 to current 15 seats. If BN and Opposition are both stocks, you know which is the clear winner.
Now, the question is will Najib Razak calling the next snap election this year? Given the results of Sarawak election on the table, he will definitely do so. His only worry is the fact that the Chinese voters are stubbornly behind the opposition, not because they love the opposition but because they still hate BN so his claim that the Chinese community have return to BN in droves does not hold waters.



If his claim that the Indian community has return to BN is true, then there’s no reason why he shouldn’t rush for a nationwide general election this year. But would he dare to do so? What else does his intelligence report is telling him that we do not know? His 1Malaysia doesn’t seems to work, at least not the Chinese community.

Singapore GE-2011, Aljunied’s Giant Step Of Tsunami

As expected (*yawn*), the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) retained firm control, winning 81 out of 87 seats contested. However this 2011 general election registered many “firsts”. For the first time, opposition candidates contested virtually every seat in parliament with the exception of Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew. For the first time, social media and the internet was allowed to be used and the opposition parties didn’t waste the opportunity to the max in the campaign as an alternative to state-controlled newspaper.

Also, for the first time Singapore’s ruling party PAP suffered its worst-ever election result since independence in 1965, thanks to the more daring young voters. PAP also saw its national vote share plunge to 60.14%, the lowest in all post-independence elections. And for the first time, the Singapore parliament will have the loudest voice or biggest opposition presence (six) since independence, thanks to opposition Worker’s Party (WP) who managed to capture Aljunied Group Representation Constituency (GRC) as well as retain their Hougang Single Member Constituency (SMC).


For the first time, the PAP lost a Group Representation Constituency (GRC) since they were created in 1988 to ensure Indians, Malays and other ethnic minorities were represented in parliament. Foreign Minister George Yeo and Second Finance Minister Lim Hwee Hua who are part of the PAP team lost their seats in the process. Aljunied was known to be a hot seat so much so that Minster Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said (or rather threaten?) during the campaign that Aljunied GRC voters have 5 years “to repent”.


It is indeed a sweet victory for the opposition Worker’s Party simply because PAP’s George Yeo is very popular amongst the voters. Given a choice, Aljunied GRC voters would rather vote out other arrogant PAP leaders including PM Lee Hsien Loong (if Lee switches place with George) but coincidently Aljunied is traditionally opposition stronghold hence they have to answer the call for a First World Parliament, not to mention the irresistible Worker’s Party A-team.

On a broader scope, it seems the tsunami that hit Malaysia’s Mar 2008 general election and the recent concluded mini-tsunami in Sarawak state election have brought after-shock to Singapore, one way or another. Generation-Y are more vocal and dare to vote for a change compare to their parents. While their parents owe the ruling government in bringing economic prosperity, the younger generation wants more than that such as freedom of speech. They feel it’s sufficient for their parents to repay the gratitude (by voting the ruling government) so they’re free to vote whoever they like.

Similar to Malaysia’s Mar 2008 general election, the popular vote Singapore’s ruling government PAP garnered this time is pathetic. PAP won 60.1% of the popular vote –  less than the 61% it received in the 1991 elections a few months after Goh Chok Tong became prime minister. If you analyze the PAP performance in the GRC seats between 2006 and 2011 which saw a fight with the opposition (and not walkover), with the exception of Ang Mo Kio basically PAP’s vote share is seeing an obvious decline.

If the PAP continues to be arrogant and considers opposition was just lucky during this round of election, it had better wish the voters are equally forgiving in the next election especially in the GRC such as East Coast and Tampines. The new GRC of Nee Soon and Moulmein-Kallang which saw the opposition captured 41.61% and 41.44% of popular vote is evident that PAP can’t take things for granted as they’re ready to swing their votes to the opposition next round. Even GRC Marine Parade and Bishan-Toa Payoh which saw PAP enjoyed a walkover in 2006 are slipping away with the PAP capturing only 56.65% and 56.94% votes.


In total, East Coast, Tampines, Nee Soon, Moulmein-Kallang, Marine Parade and Bishan-Toa Payoh constitute 29 seats. Two-third majority means PAP needs at least 58 seats. In other words, if PAP were to lose more than 29 seats, they would lose their traditionally two-third majority. So, if the opposition can ensure the GRC Aljunied voters that they’ve made the correct decision and somehow PAP continues to sleep on the issues highlighted, the above 6 GRCs can potentially deliver another 29 seats to the opposition and PAP would then be in deep trouble.



No doubt, the PAP can still form the government with a simple-majority but it would be disastrous to the ruling government, which is unlikely given the current scenario. PAP should take the latest result seriously, unlike it’s neighbour Malaysia. Of course in Malaysia, the ruling government can still form the government even if they manage to win only 40% of vote in Peninsula Malaysia simply because vote-buying will ensure the vote-bank in Sabah and Sarawak deliver the desired seats, while the same cannot be said about Singapore’s politics.

Nevertheless Singapore is at its infancy as far as democracy in terms of freedom of speech is concerned. Singaporeans are still reluctant to speak openly against their government even on the internet, most probably due to the fear that their government has instil since day one. They have everything to lose and nothing to gain by critisizing the ruling government which has done a great job in preparing the basic necessities for the citizens. On the other hand, the opposition parties need to do more than presenting young and professional teams.



They need to learn the basic tactics in politic from Malaysia such as the consideration of forming partnership or even merger in order to prevent three or more corners fight with giant PAP in order to prevent vote-split. But above all, maybe both the ruling government an opposition should educate their citizens on how to reduce the spoilt or rejected votes. It’s amusing that a country such as Singapore has such a huge number of such votes. Nevertheless, the latest result shows the Singapore voters especially from the GRC Aljunied has taken a giant courages step in moving into a possibility of two-party system.

10 Reasons Must Call A Snap Election This Year – Part 1

After the Sarawak’s state election, many jumped into conclusion that Najib will have no other choice but to postpone the calling of the 13th General Election. Reason – Najib’s friend in Sarawak performed badly after DAP captured 12 of 15 seats contested, a 80% success rate, not to mention doubling its initial 6 seats, conveniently forgotten that Chief Minister Taib Mahmud made a clean sweep of 35 seats it contested, a 100% success rate. That’s a bunch of horse-shit as Najib should call for the snap election this year, tactically.

Well, I’ve wrote 15 Signs & Reasons Snap Election is Around the Corner and believe the snap election would be called this year after the Sarawak Elections – The Winners, Losers & The Next GE. And I still think Najib should and would call the snap election this year. Of course his mentor, Mahathir Mohamad, somehow got cold feet and he opined prime minister Najib should only call for general elections next year as there is currently too much racial division. Surely Najib doesn’t need to listen to Mahathir because the PM is an adult and not a small kid that need the nanny to baby-sit him all the time.

1) Chinese Vote-Bank

Many justify that Najib will postpone the snap election to next year or beyond simply because the Chinese voters are still stubbornly shying away from ruling government’s National Front (Barisan Nasional). That’s a pretty naive way in looking at the matter. To hell with the Chinese votes – if they had abandoned the BN in the general election 3 years ago and continuosly asking Najib’s administration to fly kite in the past 13 by-elections and the recent Sarawak state election, chances are they won’t return to BN’s fold anymore, at least not with the current master-slave model.

There’s not a single thing that Najib has done (did he do anything in the first place?) that impress and could persuade the Chinese voters to reverse their votes; and there’s not a single thing that the Chinese voters want that Najib can deliver without offending his UMNO’s warlords and racism’s policies. As I’ve said, the Chinese can survive on their own without the government’s assistance and as long as they pay their taxes, they can ask the government to fly kite if votes is what the BN is demanding.

Instead of wasting time sulking, scolding and threatening the Chinese voters being not appreciative, Najib should move on and call for a snap election this year. Really, it doesn’t make a difference to call a snap election either this year or next year if the Chinese votes was the concern. And Najib is aware of this so he will most likely do so this year. The many success stories from opposition DAP in managing Penang gives more reasons to the Chinese voters to avoid BN’s partner MCA and Gerakan for good.

2) Indian Vote-Bank

Interestingly most of the Indian-ethnic who revolted in the name of Makkal Shakti during the Mar-2008 General Election are pretty impress with the 1Malaysia concept. Najib’s administration has done an excellent job in breaking up the once influential Hindraf who pioneered the Makkal Shakti into harmless adorable teddy bears. The propaganda 1Malaysia has work wonderfully well in brainwashing the Indian-ethnic thinking the government was really serious about the slogan.

They’re so stupid it makes the Iban in Sarawak look like Einstein. Isn’t it laughable to think that many were happily bashing the Iban for selling their votes for RM200 not many moons ago during the Sarawak state election but the Indian-ethnic (most of them) in Peninsula is doing the same without being paid? Najib was telling the truth that the Indian-ethnic has return in big way to BN although he lied about the Chinese-ethnic.

Given that BN lost its two-thirds majority primarily due to massive votes-swing from Indian-ethnic, the return of the same votes would almost ensure the return of the two-thirds-majority. Even if it doesn’t, the popular vote would definitely increases. Therefore, Najib should call for a snap election this year, while the 1Malaysia slogan still works. With the much hated Samy Vellu sent into retirement, there’s little reason to hate BN.

3) Malay Vote-Bank

This is perhaps the most complicated problem with simple solution. While Najib can ignore the Chinese voters and have already lock-in the Indian voters, the Malay voters will determine if Najib will eventually fly kite for real. It’s very crucial to ensure Malay’s swung votes to the opposition 3 years ago will swing back to BN in the next 13th general election. And believe me when I say you do not need a rocket scientist to plot some plans to swing the Malay votes especially the fence-sitters back to BN.

In a nutshell, BN just need 1.2% swing to BN to regain its two-thirds majority, an extremely easy task compares to opposition parties who need additional 6% swing while maintaining their swung votes from Mar 2008 general election. The past by-election results show the Malay voters have indeed reverse the trend and are supporting Najib’s administration. However, as a backup plan, Najib needs to ensure the younger Malay voters who are fence-sitters would act as the second layer support.

These young and inexperience voters and to a certain extent the older Malay voters can be brainwashed with dirty tactics such as Anwar Schwarzenegger’s sex tape scandal and the latest Christian conspiracy. Surely out of 100 Malay voters there will be a small number who believe the allegations. Heck, if Najib’s administration can easily tricked and trapped smart street RPK for an interview that clears Najib’s name in relation to Mongolian Altantuya’s murder and at the same time cracked RPK’s credibility, how hard it is to influence the young potatoes (voters)?

However, such dirty tricks have a short lifespan and will expire soon so either you strike while the iron is hot or you have to cook up some other stories. The fact that Najib’s UMNO mouthpiece, Utusan Malaysia, is given full immunity in fanning flames of racial hatred and is in full swing now goes to show that Najib’s snap election is indeed this year. Actually UMNO realizes it can’t use the Chinese as economic bogeyman anymore because unlike in 1969, the Malay ethnic (or rather Malay UMNO) become very rich now.

So UMNO and MCA were rather disappointed the Malay ethnic and Chinese ethnic gave their middle finger when put on the wrestling ring, instead of fighting each other. But flaming the religion is another fresh idea altogether. Still fresh from the Allah controversy, Utusan Malaysia under UMNO’s endorsement tried their luck by making the Christian the new bogeyman. The accusations that opposition DAP and some pastors were plotting to make Christianity the religion of the federation and appoint a Christian prime minister seems like the greatest invention since sliced bread.

As much as the “Christian conspiracy” is laughable because it defies even the law of gravity, the plot was nevertheless serious enough to raise many Malay ethnic eyebrows and swing some of their votes to the BN. Of course as usual the PM Najib would appear calming everyone as if he was the hero who save the day. And the poor and naive Christian groups were put in the dock to explain themselves when they had never questioned the official religion of the country in the first place.

And if you think this saga is over after PM Najib’s meeting (or rather interrogation?) with the Christian groups, you’re dead wrong. UMNO-owned Utusan Malaysia, Mahathir-backed Perkasa, Najib’s cousin and Home Minister Hishammuddin Hussein and many more unknown groups would emerge from nowhere and will take their turn in punching the Christians to keep the heat up and to divert attention from UMNO’s problems. What better time to call a snap election this year while the opposition is in havoc?

4) Sarawak State Election Result

As much as the recent concluded Sarawak election results show some setbacks, it also gives Najib the reason to call for a snap election this year. While the opposition especially DAP is still celebrating and chest-thumping with their small victory, the main issue about multi-billionaire Chief Minister Taib Mahmud’s corruption has somehow cool down. Using the latest result as a guideline, Najib’s BN will probably lose, the most, additional 4 to 5 parliamentary seats, which is negligible. The nightmare of a total Sarawak tsunami is now a myth.

The picture is clearer now that the objective of opposition in marching to Putrajaya is a mission impossible, even if the status-quo in Peninsula remains, which is unlikely because the voters do not hate Najib’s administration as much as they did during Abdullah Badawi’s administration. If Najib delays the snap election to next year and beyond, there’s no guarantee the current Sarawak’s political landscape will remain the same. Najib’s administration is said to have spent about RM500 million in the Sarawak state election inclusive of vote-buying.

Now that it’s a known fact the Chinese in Sarawak has a change of heart, BN will most likely spend less in the coming 13th general election. If Najib postpones it, he may need to spend a higher figure if the situation turns for the worst. And Chief Minister Taib Mahmud won’t care about parliamentary election as he’s only interested in his state’s election.

5) Anwar’s Sodomy II

The High Court set May 16 to deliver its decision whether Anwar Ibrahim will be called to enter his defence or acquit him of his sodomy charge. And why do you think the new Deputy IGP (Inspector General of Police) said there’s no hurry to reveal the man in the sex video yet? Won’t it be nice to tell the voters just before an election that not only de-facto opposition leader Anwar sodomised his former personal aide Saiful, he was also caught with his pants down bonking a prostitute like Terminator Schwarzenegger despite a back pain.

Najib will almost certainly call for a snap election this year in order to leverage on above bullets. These cases need conclusion soon and can’t be dragged any further into 2012 and beyond. In reality, these political conspiracy theories has taken its toll on Anwar so much so that he has lost focus in strengthening his own PKR party. It’s true that the opposition should not merely rely on one person. The partnership of PKR-DAP-PAS will most probably crumbles should Anwar put behind bars as it seems only Anwar can glue PAS and DAP together.